Two weeks ago, the european commission discussed the progress of renewable energy in Europe and posted a report on the progress and the future estimates to reach the 2020 targets .
The report shows us the problems that lay ahead. I’ll be talking mainly about the 2nd point: PROGRESS IN RENEWABLE ENERGY DEVELOPMENT. The graphs mentioned will be found there. (The rest is very interesting as well, and could be some nice bedside lecture ;-))
The first graph shows a serious growth during 2005 to 2010. It shows we are on the right track according to the target. But after this, the amount of renewable energy pretty much remained the same. This already shows a problem.
A new analysis was made to simulate the progress untill 2020, which shows us pretty depressive numbers. By 2020, the amount of renewable energy would be only 75-80% of what was planned. The following graphs show us the planned amount of renewable energy versus the estimated amounts. These graphs are divided into Wind Energy (on/offshore), biomass energy, biofuel energy and PV energy. According to these estimated numbers, none of the above will reach the planned values with their current plans. With the biggest failure being seen in offshore wind energy.
The results show us that their will be even more effort and budget needed than initially planned. The last 7 years were used to achieve the first 20% (as planned), which means that there will a much steeper growth needed in the future.
These depressive estimates are partly caused by policy changes which scare of investors, regulatory risk, adminastrative burdens and delays, slow infrastructure, delays in connection, grid operational rules and ofcourse the economic crisis.
As we are still on track on the moment all these estimates can still be changed, with more effort, bigger investments, etc. Probable also less stupid investments, like the 450€ subsidies Belgium gave in the beginning (which will cost a fortune, which otherwise could have been invested more wisely).
I didn’t know that the forecasts where this bad, and hopefully Europe will raise the alarm.